Tropical depression likely to form in the Caribbean Sea

The National Hurricane Center said Tuesday that he is pursuing a tropical wave in the central Caribbean Sea which produces “an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms”.

Environmental conditions appear to favor wave development, according to the hurricane center, and a tropical depression is “likely” to form by the end of the week as the system slowly moves westward into the western Caribbean Sea.

The system is then expected to move over the western Caribbean Sea over the weekend and begin a slow northwestward movement into early next week.

“Interests in the western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system,” the NHC said, giving it an 80 percent chance of formation in the next seven days.

The November hurricane forecast says more storms could come after Rafael

Although it’s late in the season, things look “good for another storm or two,” Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach told USA TODAY last week.

Rafael made landfall in western Cuba last Wednesday as a Category 3 hurricane, battering Artemisa province with sustained winds of up to 115 mph, knocking out the island’s power grid. As Rafael’s center moved toward the Gulf, parts of western Cuba were facing “a life-threatening storm surge” and flash flooding, the hurricane center said last Wednesday.

It has already been an unusually active season, with 17 named storms forming, which is above the average of 14. Of the 17 storms, 11 were hurricanes, including catastrophic hurricanes Helene and Milton. Hurricane season officially ends on November 30, although storms occasionally form in December.

“There are no ‘smoking gun’ signals right now, but the broad scale looks pretty favorable” for more tropical cyclone activity beyond Rafael, Klotzbach said.

He said that global climate patterns such as The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) favors storm formation. The MJO is an eastward-moving disturbance of clouds, precipitation, winds and pressure that crosses the planet in the tropics and returns to its original starting point within 30 to 60 days, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It influences weather, including the formation of hurricanes, around the globe.

Next of the storms in the Atlantic

Gabe Hauari is a national news reporter at USA TODAY. You can follow X @GabeHauari or email them at [email protected].