What to watch for in Ireland’s general election – with counting underway

Counting is underway for the Irish general election.

But unlike the UK, it will take more than a few hours for all 174 seats to be filled – and much longer to form a government.

Here are three things you should watch out for while the votes are being counted.

1. The race of the main parties to 88

This is the number required for a majority in IrelandThe lower house of parliament, the Dail.

But the three biggest parties – Fianna Fail (FF), Fine Gael (FG) and Sinn Finn (SF) – did not field enough candidates to make it, so they will be looking for coalition partners.

In the last election, FF won 38 seats, SF won 37 and FG won 35 with almost the same support as Friday’s poll suggests.

Fianna Fail and centre-right Fine Gael, which led in the last government with the Green Party, have vowed not to enter a coalition with left-wing Sinn Fein.

So if the exit poll closely mirrors the final result, an FF-FG coalition looks likely – along with another party or independent candidates.

Explainer: How Ireland’s electoral voting system works

But if Sinn Fein translate their support into many more seats than they took last time, it would put the party in a stronger negotiating position – and Mary Lou McDonald she may still have an outside chance of becoming Ireland’s first female taoiseach.

2. How the smaller parties fare

Ireland’s electoral system – proportional representation by single transferable vote – means smaller parties have more seats than their UK counterparts.

On the left, there are the Labor Party, the Social Democrats, the Greens – all between 4% and 6% in the exit poll – as well as the People Before Profit-Solidarity Alliance.

On the right are the separatist party SF Aontu and several newly formed far-right parties, the largest of which is Independent Ireland.

At least one of these groups is likely to form a government with FF and FG – depending on how many seats they take.

3. How independent candidates perform

A peculiarity of the electoral system in Ireland is the large number of independent candidates.

The exit poll put the independents at 14.6% – meaning they are likely to win a significant number of seats. In 2020, independent candidates won 19 seats with 12.2% of the vote.

A three-party coalition is still likely to fall short of the 88-seat threshold for a majority, so independent support will become important.

In 2016, nine independents were members of the Fine Gael-led minority government, with three holding ministerial posts.

Independents come from across the ideological spectrum and often focus on hyper-local issues.