Ireland’s ruling coalition is poised to return to office but may fall short of an outright majority as election votes begin

Ireland’s ruling coalition of centre-right parties is closing in on victory but may need more help to return to power, according to new exit polls.

Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, who were in office before the election, ruled out a deal with Sinn Fein despite having just 40.5% of the vote, short of an outright majority.

The Sinn Fein republican party has 21.1% of the total vote – but it is a political anomaly. Experts say Fine Gael – led by Taoiseach Simon Harris – and Fianna Fail will likely have to form a new broad coalition to return to power.

The leaders of the major political parties have cast their ballots in what could be an extraordinary election – and the biggest in Irish history – which includes Gerry “The Monk” Hutch, leader of the infamous Hutch crime gang, among its electoral candidates.

Career criminal Hutch was released on €100,000 bail earlier this month by a Spanish judge while facing money laundering charges – and early polls suggest he could claim the final seat in the constituency, in behind other more established candidates.

His gang was linked to some of the biggest heists in Irish history – but Hutch himself was never convicted of his involvement due to a lack of evidence. He was cleared of murdering David Byrne, a member of the rival Kinahan clan, last year.

Byrne had been shot six times at a boxing weigh-in event at the Regency Hotel in Dublin in February 2016.

A Special Criminal Court judge described Hutch, 61, as the patriarchal figure of the Hutch criminal organization and said he had engaged in “serious criminal behaviour”.

There are four seats up for grabs in the Dublin Central area, where Hutch is campaigning – and his choice could make him more difficult to prosecute, or even investigate.

Current Taoiseach Simon Harris said he was expecting a “fascinating few days” after casting his ballot minutes after the polls opened.

Because Ireland uses a proportional representation system where candidates are ranked numerically according to preferences, ballots must be counted multiple times. This means that some places may take a few days to declare.

Political leaders walked out in the pouring rain on Friday to vote, except Social Democrat leader Holly Cairns – who gave birth to a baby girl on polling day.

Speaking after Friday’s vote, Mr Harris said the make-up and stability of the next government could be decided by where transfer votes go.

The Fine Gael leader arrived at the polling station at Delgany National School in Co Wicklow just before 7.30am with his wife Caoimhe and their children Saoirse, five, and Cillian, three.

“I feel really hopeful, hopeful about the election, but hopeful about the future of our country,” he said, as he urged people to “use your voice, use your vote “.

In an election where several opinion polls have put the three main parties – Fine Gael, Fianna Fail and opposition party Sinn Fein – within striking distance of each other, turnout is expected to be another crucial factor .

The three biggest parties were all but close to polling day, with one party leader describing the race as “too close to call”.

The largest opposition party, Sinn Fein, had 21.1% of the first preference vote, just ahead of current coalition partners Fine Gael and Fianna Fail on 21% and 19.5% respectively, according to the Ipsos B&A poll Exit Poll commissioned by RTE, The Irish Times, TG4. and Trinity College Dublin.

“If they (Fine Gael and Fianna Fail) are both at 20%, that will give them close to 80 seats, I suspect, and then it’s a matter of who goes in with them,” Dublin City University politics professor Gary Murphy. he told Reuters news agency.

More than three million registered voters have their representatives in 43 constituencies in a campaign that has focused on the country’s housing crisis, the response to a dramatic increase in immigration and economic management of the cost of living, as well as potential future trade shocks.

After the 2020 general election yielded an inconclusive result, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, two parties formed from opposing sides of the Irish Civil War in the 1920s, have agreed to put aside nearly a century of animosity and share power.

Sinn Fein won the popular vote in 2020, but its failure to field enough candidates meant it did not secure enough Dail seats to give it a realistic chance of forming a government.

The election, called for November 8, was followed by a lackluster three-week campaign that seemed to fail to ignite a wave of public enthusiasm.

Fine Gael’s campaign has been marred by several controversies that the Taoiseach has been unable to shake.

Mr Harris has repeatedly apologized for a much-criticised meeting in which he was accused of dismissing the concerns of a disabled care worker at a supermarket, which was filmed by RTE.

The Fine Gael campaign has also been dogged by images that have entered the public domain which showed a candidate involved in a brawl outside a pub.

John McGahon was found not guilty in a criminal case surrounding the incident, but was ordered to pay restitution in a civil case.

Former Green Party leader Eamon Ryan, who is retiring from front line politics, said his party did not have a good day in the Irish general election.

Meanwhile, Social Democrats deputy leader Cian O’Callaghan said his party’s “red lines” were not intended to rule him out of government with Fianna Fail or Fine Gael.

The left-wing party could still talk to other parties in its own right, including the Labor Party, about how it could stand up to the centre-right during potential coalition talks.